After a veritable massacre final week, it seems that the value of Bitcoin could also be stabilizing.
Indeed, BTC’s value during the last seven days continues to be down on the order of 15 p.c. However, the 24-hour charts present one thing a bit extra optimistic: Bitcoin is up greater than 5 p.c, having steadily climbed from $36.3K yesterday to roughly $38.5K at press time.
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Additionally, Bitcoin’s stabilization seems to be mirrored in Ether (ETH) and altcoin markets extra typically. ETH is down 25 p.c in seven days, however up 15 p.c in 24 hours; Binance Coin (BNB) is down almost 34 p.c in seven days however is up roughly 20 p.c in 24 hours. Similarly, XRP’s week-long decline of 35 p.c is met with a 24-hour improve of almost 20 p.c. The charts of DogeCoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) all inform related tales.
It is sort of sufficient to make one assume that rays of hopeful mild could possibly be penetrating the doom and gloom that plagued crypto markets final week. But, is that this reprieve from dropping crypto costs actually the tip of the nightmare? Or is that this only the start of an extended, darkish night time?
What Caused Bitcoin to Drop?
The causes behind Bitcoin’s large drop appear to be pretty clear. The large information that broke final week was a joint word issued by the China Internet Finance Association, China Banking Association and China Payment and Clearing Association. The word made clear that China is planning on cracking down on cryptocurrency.
Specifically, the assertion forbade monetary establishments from working with crypto corporations: “Financial and payment member institutions shall not provide services that relate to virtual currencies or directly and indirectly offer crypto-related services for their clients, including crypto trading, custody, lending and settlement; accepting virtual currencies as a payment tool; exchanging virtual currencies with the RMB.”
Moreover, the word acknowledged that: “Virtual currency’s prices have soared and plummeted recently, resulting [in] a rebound of speculative trading activities of virtual currency. It has seriously damaged the safety of the people’s investment and damaged the normal economic and financial orders.”
Additionally, whereas China was expressing its intentions to clamp down on crypto, Bitcoin was struggling one other blow from a reasonably surprising supply. Tesla Founder, Elon Musk abruptly introduced that his firm would not be accepting BTC funds, citing environmental issues. While Musk clearly acknowledged that: “Tesla will not be selling” any of the BTC on its steadiness sheet, the transfer appeared to have adverse results on the value of BTC.
Further, analysts have identified that the adverse results of each items of reports had been magnified by the liquidations of a excessive variety of over-leveraged positions. The Twitter account of inventory screening platform StockstoTrade identified that: “This Wednesday when #Bitcoin and #cryptocurrency crashed, 775,000 over-leveraged accounts were liquidated (completely wiped out) resulting in $8,000,000,000+ in total losses.”
This Wednesday, when #Bitcoin and #cryptocurrency crashed, 775,000 over-leveraged accounts had been liquidated (utterly worn out) leading to $8,000,000,000+ in whole losses. Let this be a lesson to NEVER oversize and ALWAYS take good points into power. Anything is feasible.
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Is BTC’s Latest Round of FUD Old News?
Together, these three components contributed to a type of ‘perfect storm’ of dangerous information for Bitcoin. However, whereas the long-term results of every of those items of reports could not but be totally realized, the short-term crash could have come to an finish.
Samson Mow, CSO of Blockstream and CEO of Pixelmatic, instructed Finance Magnates that: “We’ve already reached the bottom, and I would say Bitcoin has stabilized.”
“There has been a series of recycled FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) about Bitcoin which has scared new investors, but most have already sold in a panic,” he defined. “At this point, seasoned investors and HODLers have been steadily buying the dip — it just takes time for dollars to reach exchange accounts and for the buy pressure to overcome the panic selling.”
The time period ‘recycled FUD’ refers to the truth that the issues that Bitcoin is presently going through appear to be reiterations of issues that it has confronted earlier than. After all, this isn’t the primary time that the Chinese authorities has come out towards crypto: in 2017, Bitcoin noticed a critical value drop when China banned home cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs.
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“Media Narratives Have Had a Stronger Impact on the Bitcoin Price than Vice Versa.”
As for Tesla’s determination to drop BTC funds due to environmental issues, many analysts agree that Bitcoin’s environmental issues are a moot level. Yes, BTC does have a heavy carbon footprint, however so does the standard monetary system, they are saying; others argue that almost all of electrical energy used to mine Bitcoin is generated from renewable sources.
In any case, the underside line is that these points should not new, they’ve been current in BTC markets for years, and discussions about their influence have been ongoing. However, with so many new traders within the Bitcoin market this yr, these items of reports, which have appeared in varied varieties previously, could fall on recent ears.
As a consequence, “Media narratives have had a stronger impact on the Bitcoin price than vice versa,” Mow stated.
Additionally, “Many reputable outlets have been picking up poorly researched reports and multiplied their impact through sensational headlines,” he argued. “Paired with the ‘Elon Musk Effect’, this sent the market tumbling and led to cascading futures liquidations, which in turn stirred up panic among many investors.”
“But, just like the impact from Elon’s Tweets is noticeably wearing off, the current narratives will become old news soon, and their effect on the price will be negligible — until the next cycle, that is.”
How Low Will Bitcoin Go?
For now, the ‘Elon Musk effect’ on Bitcoin’s value is palpable. Paul Sundin, who’s the Founder, CPA, and Tax Strategist of Emparion, instructed Finance Magnates that: “When a prominent Bitcoin influencer like Elon Musk publicly announced that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin currency for purchasing their vehicles, it’s like announcing to the public that you have withdrawn your confidence and trust as an investor.”
Thus, “panic selling ensues” from “newbie and dependent investors who only mirror their investment strategy from the likes of Elon Musk.”
But, how low may this Musk impact drive the value of Bitcoin? “While I cannot specify when it stabilizes, the decline will only be for the short term,” Sundin instructed Finance Magnates.
“It will most likely go back to its 200-day moving average…to $40,000 compared to just below $44,000 currently,” he stated. “The decline, in my opinion, is a way for this highly volatile market to make corrections, and the market will most likely rebound even before the prices can get any lower.”
Doug Schwenk, Chairman of Digital Asset Research (DAR), believes that Bitcoin’s value drop could have bottomed out.
“Bitcoin trades largely on sentiment, which can lead to almost any outcome, but the psychological benchmarks of previous stable levels or round numbers are often telling,” he stated. To that finish, “$30k seems to have been a natural support level with the price rallying back toward $40k from the low $30k’s this past week.”
“If the news does not contain further surprises (and Elon keeps his comments in check), we likely won’t see further drops in the near term. There have been net positive institutional buyers who have seen this as a buying opportunity and that helps support the price.”
(So far, Elon appears to be behaving. On Monday, he tweeted that he “Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising (sic).”)
“$100,000 Is Still in Play This Year” for BTC: Samson Mow
Even with the value drama of the final two weeks, Mow believes that: “$100,000 is still in play this year.”
“None of the current events have had any impact on Bitcoin’s fundamentals — in fact, none of the ‘concerns’ are actually new,” he stated. “Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen, and it still serves as a powerful hedge in times of uncontrolled monetary stimulus.”
Additionally, “If you look at the demand for Bitcoin, it’s unchanged. Companies are still adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, coins are still being moved off exchanges into cold storage at increasing rates, and famous athletes are still demanding to be paid in Bitcoin. And, remember that we have another halving event in three years.”
Still, whereas the latest spherical of value drama could have come to some sort of a conclusion, this in all probability is not going to be the final time that BTC sees excessive ranges of volatility.
“Bitcoin’s price will likely remain volatile until we exceed the market capitalization of gold – that would be around $500,000 per Bitcoin,” Mow instructed Finance Magnates. “We’re already seeing volatility reducing now though, which is a good sign. Also, there are likely going to be new Bitcoin-focused financial products coming to market that will reduce volatility and gyrations.”